PRI Population Health Working Group

PRI Population Health Working Group

October 14th - 2:00 pm

Andy Fenelon

"Emerging Political and Demographic Divides: State Politics, Welfare Generosity, and Adult Mortality in U.S. States 1977-2017"

Abstract: The past several decades have demonstrated growing geographic disparities in adult mortality within the US, but why these disparities have grown is unclear. In this article, we examine trends in adult mortality (ages 55+) across US states from 1977-2017, paying close attention to the shifting geographic pattern of high- and low-mortality states. We then turn our attention to the changing political patterning of adult mortality in the United States—recent years show that more liberal states and state governments tend to have better mortality outcomes and experience the largest mortality declines. We find that states in the South tended to fall behind the rest of the country in the 1970s and 1980s, while states in the Great Plains and Mountain West tended to fall behind in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. In contrast, states on the East and West Coasts have tended to see considerable improvement in mortality. Finally, we consider one possible mechanism linking these trends: state-level spending on public welfare programs. We show that state welfare generosity predicts greater yearly reductions in mortality. State shifts towards liberal political orientation and more generous welfare spending may contribute to the political realignment of adult mortality in the United States.

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Information: JD Daw (jddaw@psu.edu)